This weekend we’ve got the biggest competition we’ve ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entrance competition with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never believed we’d see a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but that I was wrong and that I can not wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights therefore that we can see a range of ties for that 1st place prize, so try to be different with your lineups someplace, or make wages on the table to be different in this way. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this weekend Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” play on the card by a good margin in his -900 betting line. I love plugging in those high likelihood guys in cash so that I can lock a triumph in there and fret about locating 3 other wins out of my 5 other areas. We generally only want 4 wins in money games to beat the cash line, so that is what I take for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been quite impressive in his UFC conduct and he’s overcome some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of the easiest matches nonetheless. He also has large time upside down with his finishing possible. He has an ITD line of -270, so that I think we can have 100+ points within this triumph. He’s a fantastic play in all formats, however he will be chalky in championships, so that’s why he’s my cash play of this week instead.
GPP play of this week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always good to target in GPPs since it just takes 1 shot with a lot of these guys. I think that this is a great matchup for Volkov and he is only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at that price, he’ll likely be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he’s a good GPP drama too. But, my choice to win is going to be Volkov and I like his cost. I believe a few guys priced over him this week will be much higher owned, therefore we could get a heavyweight favorite at lesser possession here. Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -190, so this is a fantastic GPP struggle to target over all. If you like the Dark Beast to get the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog drama of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
This really is the best odds worth on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I enjoy searching online worth like that which alone puts Martin in drama in all formats. Martin also has the much better odds to end this fight ITD, so that is another plus with him. I like the floor for Martin in cash games also since Laflare is not very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a loss from Martin and take the points he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win . However, he’s going to need to acquire a finish to pay off his $8.6k price . Sergio won’t be going for any takedowns in this battle, and he doesn’t strike at a high enough rate for him to find 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter on the feet, but when he doesn’t get an end then he likely only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it in $8.6k. There are only better plays points per dollar and those are the men I will be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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